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This methods-forward seminar provides a practical toolkit for policy analysis with a focus on causal evidence. We cover how to formulate policy problems and theories of change, choose indicators, and evaluate whether a policy works. The core emphasis is on experimental and quasi-experimental designs commonly used in modern policy research, including randomized controlled trials, survey experiments, and field experiments, complemented by introductions to difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity as policy evaluation tools. Throughout the course we apply the toolkit to concrete examples from public administration and governance, such as public service quality, redistribution and fairness, policy communication, and political polarization.
Learning outcomes:
Students will be able to
• translate policy questions into testable hypotheses and a theory of change
• select outcomes and measurement strategies (including survey measures)
• assess internal and external validity of evaluation designs
• interpret treatment effects and basic uncertainty (confidence intervals, heterogeneity)
• design an evaluation plan for a real policy intervention (feasible and ethical)
• write and present a clear policy evaluation memo
Teaching format
Combination of short lectures, guided discussion of empirical papers, and hands-on exercises. Students work in small groups on an evaluation design project (policy problem, theory of change, design choice, measurement plan).
Assessment
In-class presentation (evaluation design proposal) and term paper (policy evaluation memo or short research-style paper)
Recommended preparatory reading
•Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton University Press.
• Imbens, G. W., & Rubin, D. B. (2015). Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge University Press.
• Gerber, A. S., & Green, D. P. (2012). Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. W. W. Norton.
• Gertler, P. J., Martinez, S., Premand, P., Rawlings, L. B., & Vermeersch, C. M. J. (2016). Impact Evaluation in Practice (2nd ed.). World Bank.
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